Election Prediction: Who Will Emerge As The Next Nigerian President Come 25th Feb 2023.

Election Prediction: Who Will Emerge As The Next Nigerian President Come 25th Feb 2023. By Adewale. O

It has been a while I made a post on this platform but I just feel obliged to do so now.. at least to douse the tension and heat in the Nigerian economy. Please note before we delve deeper into this topic, without using the premise of double standard and sentiments but rather on the basis of simple logic and common sense, this is not intended to mar nor sabotage any party nor anyone's political agenda please.

In Summary and in a pictographic model of the electoral outcome and odds chances.

Peter Obi: 65% to 70% vote or 2.35 odds

Atiku Abubakar: 17% vote or 35 odds

Bola Ahmed Tinubu: 8% vote or 100 odds

Other parties: 5% votes or 350 odds

I felt compelled to do this because of the unfortunate sufferings Nigerians had to go through under the Administration of President Muhammad Buharri. Yes He did his best but his best is not good enough for Nigerians, hence here we are with the best trio candidates of the Hour. Atiku Abubakar, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and Peter Obi. 

First I must note that all the three candidate that fields this position are great candidates with their own distinctive uniqueness. Yes they all got something to offer, non of them is a push aside despite the way the masses has over the time underated Bola Ahmed Tinubu and has branded him with all sort of derogatory names due to his age. That baba is a brain box o biko. Yes, He may not be physically fit but believe me he has a lot to offer and so far amongst the political Elite, Tinubu name is an household brand politics first to be reckoned with as far as Nigeria is concerned but I must say that this purpose is not about seducing or marketing candidate to anyone because we all already have our resolve of who to vote for so please lets go vote our conscience. 🙏🙌

Now back to the crust of the matter, Tinubu is a name first to be reconned with amongst the political elites in Nigeria, but believe me "the matter and power don change hand o."  Power is now in the hand of the people and no longer in the hand of the politician. "Yes," the people at the rung of the ladder now decides who leads. Not any political party, not any politician. Quote me any where, I don't know the kind of statistics and metrics most of our leaders and politifians are using to decipher the minds, hearts and yearnings of the people, little wonder there is always a disconnect between the ruling elites and the people they lead when they gets to office and in the end the masses and common man suffer because as it stands in Nigeria, we are yet to see genuine measure of accountability amongst the ruling class. Anybody can put up any drama and allow the matter drag in court and if possible get a mild sentence and still get away with impunity in the end. 

Now back to the subject, as a lot of us may still be having a shock and nightmare over the chances of Tinubu, yes he has a big chance but rather I would want us to examine the value and worth of his chances.. His chances is now as worth as the #1000 naira and #500 naira note which Emefiele seemed to have tried to defaced. Most of us would argue but Tinubu gave us Buharri as a President, No! No! No! Tinubu did not give anybody Buharri but as Politician of interest he only market Buharri to Nigeria and we bought it hook line and sinker. We paid and even collect change, chop and clean mouth and sealed our fate for the so far 8 years of bumpy ride. True or False? 😊 Who voted Tinubu to settle our scores with Jonathan economic stimulus of hike in fuel price and contestation for removal of subsidy, who thaught we have seen it all and was brazened with our sit belt for a sweet ride with Buharri, now here we are. Please, let nobody blame Tinubu for it, He only saw an opportunity and he took it because he is a politician that knows his onions.. You don't play play to sentiments but rather to interest so. 

Now with that same sentiments and enthusiasm we used to vote in Buharri, that landed us in this mess, that is the same sentiments we are about to use to vote in Peter Obi because I see him already as the next Nigerian President with 65% to 70% sweeping chance of becoming the next President of Nigeria while the rest candidate scamper to share the remaining 30% to 35% of the left vote chances. This is about the people choice and the era of it is my turn is long gone.

"It is my turn" was a language coined in amongst the Nigerian Premier leaders in the 1960 that culminated to the Nigerian civil war in 1967 till 1970 thats millions of innocent lives were lost and nearly 5% of the Nigerian population emigrated out of the country in mass exodus to wherever we find Nigerians today. The civil war put Nigeria on the world map. I pray we dont continue to drag this It is my turn language for too long because it crippled and claimed the lives of the Top Premier Politicians of those days in the 60s to include the lives of the common masses.

Now back to the analogy, Peter Obi would win by a 70% chance but lets not over look the left over slim chances for the other parties because nearly has never killed any bird. it may be a shocking reality but it is obvious. Lets all other political ambition fanned by sentiments hide their face in shame even though this Peter Obi campaign also has some of the "it is my turn sentiments and agenda"  undertone.

1. Peter Obi would get 65% to 70% of the vote. Reason because of the drama and confusion in the camps of both the APC and PDP and also because Nigerians are saying enough is enough, we voted out PDP, we voted in APC and now we are going to fire APC for the poor or under performance for over the last 8years. The Covid 19 2020 crisis was a trigger that sensitized the people to the kindd of disconnected government in power and at play. The End SARS government reaction and body language also triggered the anger amongst the people and the common man or masses have long awaited this defining moment. This is to say the masses or people makes vote count and not any politician anywhere. Peter Obi as the people's choice is called a "Protest Vote"," to phase out or retire old and tired politicians who seemed to have been recycling themselves in power for a long time with no tangible lead in sight. Nigeria once made this type of choice with the ushering in of Buharri as the favorite choice for the President but was met with regret. Not Because Buharri was a bad choice, but APC failed to do the needful negotiation for peace and joint government with it predecessor when it assumed office. The same may happen if Peter Obi comes in and chose to run a Parallel and autonomous government to shade the rest of the big names and big shot parties. Politics is about Negotiation and Not sentiments, that is what Tinubu has more than any of the field candidate. This is not to shade Peter Obi, who I can say he is the exact model of a Perfect Gentle Man, Atiku Also have traits of this Character.

 

2. Atiku Abubakar would get maybe 17% vote not only because of the sentiments nor ignorance of the masses but because they hope to catch in on the failures of APC as a party to salvage the country well which seemed to have been marred in the last 8 years and the people now want a out. The PDP greatest nightmare is not Tinubu but Obi. More so, the chances of Atiku to emerge as the winner stems or seemed to have been defeated since Obi has chosen to come out to stand tall in the spot light and now the people's choice almost everywhere you go. ExceptKwankwanso collapse his structure in the North for Atiku, he may not go far.. The G5 neutrality resolve is another nightmare for Atiku, not only that the Northern Nigerian vote would be divided into for parts, a portion for Atiku, a portion for Tinubu, a portion for Peter Obi, and Another Portion for Kwankwanso.

3. Bola Tinubu. He is most likely going to get 8% of the vote or there about. Yes the politicians and ruling elites love to have him to experience his first hand leadership as the top boss and oga oga kind of our African mentality regular style of government, but believe me, the matter has changed. As the case at hand is now the case of "the hunter is now hunted" or "The Bush meat and traps don catch the hunter." Because it seems obvious that his ambition seemed to have been overly marred by so many things that I don't want to mention. Nigeria interest is bigger than any individual political ambition. This is about the people now.

Yes like I said, the 3 running candidates for the office of the Presidency are all Credible with unique ambition but..... Whoever comes in if still fanned with sentiments, would surely do by far worse than Muhammad Buharri.

Now my reason is this, 

“Any man who tries to be good all the time is bound to come to ruin among the great number who are not good. Hence a prince who wants to keep his authority must learn how not to be good, and use that knowledge, or refrain from using it, as necessity requires.”

 Quotes by The Prince Niccolo Machiavelli..

The politics Buharri anticipated was not what he met.. He was overwhelmed and pocketed like a drop of water in the Ocean and 

same awaits Obi If he emerge as the president, or if tries to outdo his predecessors, 

without due negotiation, his rebuttal could be by far worse than Buharri... Jonathan was never as bad as Buharri but he also had good intention for Nigeria but in the end got served and caught up in the web of power spin.. Now as we go to flip the coin or roll the dice at the poll, you can bet on this, Head or Tail ?